Somewhere between reality, politics and perception, the real story of what’s happening within the U.S. beef industry lies. The attention-grabbing headlines about Brazil importing 300,000 metric tons of beef and the border reopening between the U.S. and Mexico do just that—grab your attention. What’s missing is the numbers and the information that make and break both a cattle producer’s and beef consumer’s budget.
For U.S. cattle producers and beef consumers, alike, another 300,000 metric tons of Brazilian beef coming into the country is negligible. There is also the conversation of an out-of-quota tariff waiver that removes the 26.4% tariff for Brazil and a 25% price adjustment below the current market price of lean beef trimmings, of which review and enforcement protocols are sketchy, at best. These numbers are a blog for another day because no one has time for a novel.
The designation for the 300,000 metric tons, just over 660 million pounds, is lean beef trimmings, which is a product used to make ground beef. Lean beef trimmings are not ground beef. The lion’s share of the monthly import for the next 90 days will quickly disappear into the restaurant, aka fast food, sector. And, at the end of the day, two pounds of beef per American over a three-month period isn’t going to make a dent in the price of hamburger in the meat case or the crucial need for more beef.
Likewise, we needed the Mexican border to reopen, despite what social media and some ill-informed outlets share. In 2024, we imported around 1.6 million head of cattle from Mexico. In the first half of 2026, we imported around 108,000. Why is that important? Because packers need a supply of cattle to maintain production. If they aren’t able to maintain a full production schedule, hook space is unused and, eventually, lost. In 2026, the beef industry has permanently lost critical infrastructure due to both the inability to fill hook space and the cost of cattle. Fewer head. Higher prices. Continued reduction of infrastructure. It’s a trinity that has the earmark for disaster within the industry for all involved.
Much of the conversation has been the need for smaller, mom-and-pop, local processors. Any established local processor will tell you that, much like every industry, labor and overhead expenses are their greatest challenges. In rural areas, the workforce just isn’t there, and we aren’t talking about 8 or 10 employees. The closure of the Joslin, Illinois Tyson plant left 2,800 people scrambling to find other employment. When I think of our local processors, it would take the entire population of the five or six surrounding towns to equal 2,800 people—and that’s putting great-grandma and the toddlers to work. Then there is the issue of capacity. Joslin killed around 3,000 head of cattle per week. To replace that infrastructure on the local, mom-and-pop level, we would need around 300 processing facilities to open. And here’s the catch, we needed them to open and online BEFORE Joslin closed, in proximity to the feeders that supplied that Tyson facility. Cattle aren’t widgets, they won’t wait, production has to keep moving or stop, there really isn’t a profitable or opportunistic hold period for grain finished beef. So, while the Strengthening Processing for US Ranchers (SPUR) program is a cute acronym, it doesn’t have any legs to stand on in the short-term solution for maintaining critical beef processing infrastructure. Average costs to build are around $350/square foot and another $50/square foot for equipment. That places a modest 5,000 sq. ft. facility at a price tag of around $2,000,000.
The story isn’t what’s coming in, it’s what’s leaving…or more specifically, what isn’t!
The U.S. needs to regain access and market share in China, where Brazilian grain-fed and Australian grass-fed beef have been filling demand that could otherwise create value for U.S. cattle producers.
When was the last time you sat down to a delicious plate of omasum, the powerhouse stomach chamber of a bovine that absorbs water and nutrients? How about a beef aorta? Known as offal, or organ meats, these products are delicacies in China and fetch a premium price, a value seldom, if ever, captured at small processing facilities.
When those pieces of the animal can be sold to customers willing to pay more for them, packers are able to capture more value from the entire carcass.
That export value ultimately works its way back through the cattle market. During the first half of 2026, U.S. beef exports generated an additional $431.84 per fed animal, nearly $22 more than during the same period last year. Exports, including variety meats, represented approximately 13% of U.S. beef production.
